'Large-scale disaster' feared as flood waters near record

By the CNN Wire Staff

May 8, 2011 11:27 a.m. EDT

(CNN) -- Officials in Memphis, Tennessee, are bracing for the Mississippi River to crest Tuesday at its highest level in more than 70 years.
The river is expected to reach 48 feet -- just shy of the 48.7-foot record set in 1937 -- shortly after midnight Tuesday, National Weather Service meteorologist Bill Borghoff told CNN Sunday.
By daybreak Sunday, the Mississippi had already reached 47.3 feet.
Local officials have a "high level of confidence" that the prediction is accurate, said Bob Nations, director of preparedness in Shelby County, Tennessee.
Residents in 1,100 trailers and homes in low-lying areas in the county, which includes Memphis and surrounding areas, have already been told to evacuate. As of Saturday, 367 residents had moved into shelters, Borghoff said.
On Sunday, officials were planning to put another 243 addresses on alert, but not ask the residents to leave, Nations said.
Officials have looked at the possibility of the river reaching 52 feet, "solely to fall on the high side of caution," Nations said.
As the Mississippi River gushed downstream Sunday with no clear boundaries, flooding continued to deluge parts of Tennessee.
"Essentially, we're beginning to crest now," said Borghoff, who works at the weather service's Memphis office. "If you're impacted, it's very difficult to deal with."
"This is a pretty significant event," he added.
Shelby County Mayor Mark Luttrell, who is preparing his community for what he has said could be "a large-scale disaster," has urged residents to be calm and helpful.
Residents of a trailer park were evacuated Saturday because of high waters, said Heather Reynolds, a county emergency management spokeswoman.
Downtown Memphis is likely to avoid any serious damage from the floodwaters, Borghoff said. But he said some streets near the river were underwater.
The waters aren't likely to recede quickly, according to the latest weather service forecast. By noon Thursday, the Mississippi River is expected to drop less than half a foot from its expected crest.
Borghoff said it's possible the river won't fall below flood stage until June.
The flooding in the Mississippi and Ohio river valleys has already forced people from their homes in Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, Tennessee, Kentucky and Arkansas.
Now, in addition to Mississippi, Louisiana is under the gun.
The Army Corps of Engineers said it would open a spillway 28 miles upstream from New Orleans to reduce the volume and velocity of the Mississippi River as the water races south to the sea.
The spillway can accommodate about 1.87 million gallons of water per second, diverting it to the Gulf of Mexico by way of Lake Pontchartrain, and sparing the low-lying city of New Orleans from high waters. The spillway is scheduled to open Monday, the Corps said.
Last week, the Corps of Engineers intentionally breached a levee south of where the Ohio River joins the Mississippi River to help alleviate water pressure on levees throughout the region.
The Corps said the breach would help lower river levels and prevent widespread flooding in communities such as Cairo, Illinois, which sits at the confluence of the two rivers.

The decision to breach the Birds Point-New Madrid levee was controversial. Missouri officials took the Corps to court over the plan, questioning the agency's authority to intentionally breach the levee. The state argued the floodwater would deposit silt on about 130,000 acres, and it would take years, along with millions of dollars, to fix the damage.