September Unemployment: ACTUAL LOSS 995k
YOUCH.
Headlines: 263,000 "jobs lost" and unemployment rate up to 9.8%.
That's not good - there goes the "second derivative" argument.
Weekly earnings are also down by $1.54, which is bad news too.
But the Household Data is VASTLY worse than reported. Here are the month-over-month changes, and they're in the realm of frightening. (all numbers in thousands)
Civilian Labor Force: 154,879 to 153,617 this month.
Employed: 140,074 down to 139,079 this month.
That's a loss of 995,000 jobs, not 263,000, and the labor force contracted by 1,262,000 people!
The participation rate was absolutely decimated, down 0.6% this last month alone. The people "not in the labor force" rose by a staggering 1,516,000 in the last month.
The government doesn't count people as "unemployed" who have given up and exited the labor force, but as I have repeatedly noted whether the government counts them or not the corner store owner sure as hell does!
The fact of the matter is that nearly 1 million fewer people were working in September as compared to August; there has been absolutely no improvement in that trend whatsoever.
Market Ticker Forum link
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Rbarriera, let me do the math since I have an ex-wife:
$140K - 70K (alimony and CS) - 50K (IRS)= 20K and those are conservative numbers
**********************
I am so sick of the "lagging indicator" BS I keep hearing on CNBS... WHERE ARE THE NEW JOBS GOING TO COME FROM???
We have outsourced our manufacturing to cheap labor in India, Vietnam, China, etc... if you are a non-college educated person, what type of jobs are you going to get? You used to be able to get a good job in a factory. After we shipped those jobs out, you could work in construction and make a good living. Now what will take the place of the construction bubble that kept so many employed? Unfortunately, we can't all be Wal-Mart greeters.
I realize that globalization is a complicated topic... but it certainly seems to have been an unqualified disaster for the lower and middle class in America. In fact, it seems as though the middle class itself is becoming an endangered species. You are either part of the financial elite, or you aren't. It's sad, what has happened.
***************************
CHART - Employment Job Losses in various recessions
***************************
My wife's company just got a quote on their health insurance for next year. When the rep starts with the line "I don't have good news" you know you are in trouble. Bottom line: 37% increase. Her company can't afford it either.
Next year is going to be a disaster economically.
*****************************
Dino wrote:
My story:
I lost my job back in July due to my boss being completely inept. He let me go due to there not being enough work but I had to watch as he on multiple occasions lost out on contracts due to being too expensive or just plain missing deadlines or meetings. I always told people that I was way to valuable to the company to be let go but it turned out that I was not as valuable as my bosses standard of living. Million dollar house, SUV's, boat etc. His loss.
For the past few months I have made some drastic changes. My unemployment checks amount to $1800 a month before taxes. I've got 4 or so months left plus extensions. I live in the bay area. My strategy:
1. I stopped all discretionary spending. I buy almost nothing. I have friends and the outdoors which are much more valuable than anything I can buy with a couple dollars. I own a car (No payments except insurance and I walk most places so maintenance is low) a pay as you go cell phone ($15 buck initially plus whatever I use minutes wise) an internet connection and a gym/yoga membership (to keep me sane). My total expenses for the month are maybe $1200 a month with rent and food. $1800 - $1200 = $600 to save a month. My friends have also been saying that I am actually looking better and feeling happier now than I was before. I have to agree.
2. Right now I am working for free for anyone who needs help. I know that eventually someone will see the value in me and offer me a position. I am also willing to work almost anywhere. Send me to remote Canada or war torn Africa. If times are tough I will be tougher.
I guess I am lucky in that I am 25, healthy, no debt, an excellent college degree, no dependents and a good friend/family network.
****************************
NILF defined:
If population of "working people" goes up 1.8 million a year they are all "NILF" until they search for a job. They are then either employed or unemployed.
If the NILF number is RISING then the absorption rate for these new people coming into the workforce is NEGATIVE.
**************************
Chainlink wrote:
As an underemployed contractor, I can vouch that gross is down about 50% to 60% the last two years, and my income is down about 75% or so. Not getting by, owe a bunch of money. Starting to climb out of the hole, however, since there are less in my field remaining. Oh When, Oh When will the South Florida statistic come out, that we've been in a DEPRESSION since '07? Even averaged statewide, we have to have crossed the 25% down threshold years ago.
Headlines: 263,000 "jobs lost" and unemployment rate up to 9.8%.
That's not good - there goes the "second derivative" argument.
Weekly earnings are also down by $1.54, which is bad news too.
But the Household Data is VASTLY worse than reported. Here are the month-over-month changes, and they're in the realm of frightening. (all numbers in thousands)
Civilian Labor Force: 154,879 to 153,617 this month.
Employed: 140,074 down to 139,079 this month.
That's a loss of 995,000 jobs, not 263,000, and the labor force contracted by 1,262,000 people!
The participation rate was absolutely decimated, down 0.6% this last month alone. The people "not in the labor force" rose by a staggering 1,516,000 in the last month.
The government doesn't count people as "unemployed" who have given up and exited the labor force, but as I have repeatedly noted whether the government counts them or not the corner store owner sure as hell does!
The fact of the matter is that nearly 1 million fewer people were working in September as compared to August; there has been absolutely no improvement in that trend whatsoever.
Market Ticker Forum link
**********************
Rbarriera, let me do the math since I have an ex-wife:
$140K - 70K (alimony and CS) - 50K (IRS)= 20K and those are conservative numbers
**********************
I am so sick of the "lagging indicator" BS I keep hearing on CNBS... WHERE ARE THE NEW JOBS GOING TO COME FROM???
We have outsourced our manufacturing to cheap labor in India, Vietnam, China, etc... if you are a non-college educated person, what type of jobs are you going to get? You used to be able to get a good job in a factory. After we shipped those jobs out, you could work in construction and make a good living. Now what will take the place of the construction bubble that kept so many employed? Unfortunately, we can't all be Wal-Mart greeters.
I realize that globalization is a complicated topic... but it certainly seems to have been an unqualified disaster for the lower and middle class in America. In fact, it seems as though the middle class itself is becoming an endangered species. You are either part of the financial elite, or you aren't. It's sad, what has happened.
***************************
CHART - Employment Job Losses in various recessions
***************************
My wife's company just got a quote on their health insurance for next year. When the rep starts with the line "I don't have good news" you know you are in trouble. Bottom line: 37% increase. Her company can't afford it either.
Next year is going to be a disaster economically.
*****************************
Dino wrote:
My story:
I lost my job back in July due to my boss being completely inept. He let me go due to there not being enough work but I had to watch as he on multiple occasions lost out on contracts due to being too expensive or just plain missing deadlines or meetings. I always told people that I was way to valuable to the company to be let go but it turned out that I was not as valuable as my bosses standard of living. Million dollar house, SUV's, boat etc. His loss.
For the past few months I have made some drastic changes. My unemployment checks amount to $1800 a month before taxes. I've got 4 or so months left plus extensions. I live in the bay area. My strategy:
1. I stopped all discretionary spending. I buy almost nothing. I have friends and the outdoors which are much more valuable than anything I can buy with a couple dollars. I own a car (No payments except insurance and I walk most places so maintenance is low) a pay as you go cell phone ($15 buck initially plus whatever I use minutes wise) an internet connection and a gym/yoga membership (to keep me sane). My total expenses for the month are maybe $1200 a month with rent and food. $1800 - $1200 = $600 to save a month. My friends have also been saying that I am actually looking better and feeling happier now than I was before. I have to agree.
2. Right now I am working for free for anyone who needs help. I know that eventually someone will see the value in me and offer me a position. I am also willing to work almost anywhere. Send me to remote Canada or war torn Africa. If times are tough I will be tougher.
I guess I am lucky in that I am 25, healthy, no debt, an excellent college degree, no dependents and a good friend/family network.
****************************
NILF defined:
BLS wrote..
Not in the labor force (NILF). A person who did not work last week, was not temporarily absent from a job, did not actively look for work in the previous 4 weeks, or looked but was unavailable for work during the reference week; in other words, a person who was neither employed nor unemployed.
If population of "working people" goes up 1.8 million a year they are all "NILF" until they search for a job. They are then either employed or unemployed.
If the NILF number is RISING then the absorption rate for these new people coming into the workforce is NEGATIVE.
**************************
Chainlink wrote:
As an underemployed contractor, I can vouch that gross is down about 50% to 60% the last two years, and my income is down about 75% or so. Not getting by, owe a bunch of money. Starting to climb out of the hole, however, since there are less in my field remaining. Oh When, Oh When will the South Florida statistic come out, that we've been in a DEPRESSION since '07? Even averaged statewide, we have to have crossed the 25% down threshold years ago.
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