June 6, 2012

Wisconsin Vote Underscores Challenges for Democrats

By MICHAEL D. SHEAR

Gov. Scott Walker’s victory Tuesday night in a recall election in Wisconsin raises tough questions for President Obama and Democrats nationally as they scramble to assess what it means for the enthusiasm of their voters, the power of their ground game, and their ability to compete against the huge sums of money Republicans have been raising.

Even though Mr. Obama kept his distance from the state in the final weeks of the union-led recall effort, the president’s party, his campaign team and his labor allies exerted an enormous joint effort in the state that proved ineffective against an organized and well-funded Republican apparatus.

More than 40 offices run by the Democratic National Committee and Mr. Obama’s campaign deployed more than 100 paid staff members alongside union and state volunteers for months in what amounts to the first real test of the president’s ground game before November’s election.

There were numerous crosscurrents that likely contributed to the outcome: particularly skepticism of the recall process and anger over the ballooning cost of public employee benefits at a time of economic distress. There is little doubt that the election was more about Wisconsin than about the battle between Mitt Romney and Mr. Obama.

But the state is one that Democrats had been confident of winning in November, given Mr. Obama’s 17-point margin of victory in 2008. And the failure of a determined,  well-planned Democratic effort to oust Governor Walker highlights the challenges the party faces in November as it goes up against Republicans who proved that they can put vast financial resources behind their political efforts using “super PACS” and other vehicles.

That Democratic effort on the ground — so successful in the 2008 presidential race — failed to turn out the voters that the Democrat, Mayor Tom Barrett of Milwaukee, needed to defeat Mr. Walker in a rematch of their 2010 contest. Turnout was up by about 400,000 from 2010, but many of those voters cast ballots to keep Mr. Walker in office.

The labor movement had forced the recall by directing a wave of anger against Mr. Walker’s bid to end collective bargaining for state workers. But Mr. Walker benefitted from a surge in contributions from wealthy conservative donors from around the country who raised more than $30 million to Mr. Barrett’s $4 million.

“The fact that you’ve got a handful of self-interested billionaires who are trying to leverage their money across the country,” said David Axelrod, Mr. Obama’s senior campaign strategist, said in an interview. “Does that concern me? Of course that concerns me.”

Mr. Obama’s Wisconsin state director, Tripp Wellde, blamed what he called “the flood of secret and corporate money spent on behalf of Scott Walker” for fueling a “politics of division” in the state that overwhelmed Mr. Barrett.

Mr. Obama’s campaign sought solace in exit poll data that showed that not only did voters prefer him to the presumptive Republican nominee, Mr. Romney, but many said Mr. Obama would do a better job on the economy and for the middle class.

Mr. Axelrod said the support for Mr. Obama among voters leaving polling places suggests Wisconsin residents were uncomfortable ousting a sitting governor but are supportive of the president’s policies and are not inclined to vote for Mr. Romney in the fall.

“In both the pre-election polling, which forecasted Walker’s win, and the exit polls yesterday, a majority of Wisconsin voters supported the president over Governor Romney,” Mr. Axelrod said in an interview. “I think that’s pretty meaningful.”

And Democrats on Wednesday sought to portray the vote in Wisconsin as a special case featuring two local candidates and issues — like Mr. Walker’s push to restrict collective bargaining rights — that limit the parallels that can be drawn with Mr. Obama’s race against Mr. Romney.

But before the vote, Democratic leaders had bragged about what they predicted would be their superior on-the-ground turnout efforts. In an interview late last month, Debbie Wasserman Schultz, the chairwoman of the Democratic National Committee, called the Wisconsin recall a “dry run” for the party and for Mr. Obama’s campaign.

“All of the Obama for America and state party resources, our grass-roots network is fully engaged,” Ms. Schultz told CNN’s Candy Crowley.

“It has given the Obama for America operation an opportunity to do the dry run that we need of our massive, significant, dynamic grass-roots presidential campaign,” Ms. Wasserman Shultz said on May 27, adding that the effort “can’t really be matched by the Romney campaign or the Republicans because they’ve ignored on the ground operations.”

Republicans quickly seized on Ms. Wasserman Shultz’s comments on Wednesday morning as evidence that the president’s campaign machinery may not be as effective as the team at his Chicago headquarters thinks it will be later this year.

The Republicans also said the failure of the union-led recall in Wisconsin proved that Wisconsin and its 10 electoral votes are up for grabs in the presidential election between Mr. Romney and Mr. Obama this fall. The state is one that Democrats had been confident of winning, given Mr. Obama’s 17-point margin of victory in 2008.

“It’s good news for us five months down the road,” said a beaming Gov. Bob McDonnell of Virginia, who also leads the Republican Governor’s Association, on Wednesday on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe” program.

In a memo released late Tuesday night, Reince Priebus, the chairman of the Republican National Committee called the results “an absolute disaster” for Mr. Obama that will force his campaign team in Chicago to spend time and resources competing in a state the president won easily in 2008.

“From the White House to Chicago, Democrats are nervous this morning,” Mr. Priebus said. “After yesterday’s victory, Republicans have the infrastructure and enthusiasm that will help us defeat President Obama in Wisconsin.”

Ed Gillespie, a senior adviser to Mr. Romney’s campaign, said the Wisconsin vote underscores the power of the broader Republican argument in the presidential race about the size and role of government. Noting Wisconsin does not automatically lean Republican, he said it now returns to its role as a battleground.

“I don’t think we should assume that because there was a victory yesterday, there will be a victory in November in Wisconsin,” Mr. Gillespie told reporters on Wednesday at a Bloomberg News breakfast. “I do think it’s in play, and that’s telling.”

Among the biggest concerns for Democrats is the impact of money in the recall campaign. State law allowed unlimited contributions to Mr. Walker’s campaign, mirroring the free flow of money into presidential campaigns via federal super PACs that were allowed under the Supreme Court’s 2010 Citizens United decision.

In fact, some of the same corporate interests and personalities who are active in financing Mr. Romney’s campaign nationally helped funnel cash to Mr. Walker, including David H. Koch and Charles G. Koch, two billionaire industrialists.

That suggests that Mr. Obama could face similar challenges in other battleground states in the fall, when huge amounts of money from the same conservative interests will be designed to overwhelm Mr. Obama’s organizations.

Mr. Axelrod said Wednesday morning that the prospect worries him. He posted on Twitter that “Billionaire Koch Bros ALONE gave Walker nearly double what Barrett raised IN TOTAL & lined up millions more.”

But Mr. Axelrod said he was confident that the president’s campaign would be in a better position to respond aggressively than was Mr. Barrett in Wisconsin.

“We start off in a better place, and we’re not going to get outspent eight to one,” Mr. Axelrod said. “We are not going to have just a month to run our campaign. You cannot draw that parallel here. We’re in an entirely different situation.”