Here is another quote from the FAQ on this Website:
“The bet that we focus on will give you the greatest odds of winning after you make it past the come-out roll. Most of the time you make it past the come-out roll, thus the odds will be in your favor that your bet will win.”
This is extremely misleading, this “most of the time”. In fact, you make it past the comeout roll two-thirds of the time. Sound good? Well, consider these numbers:
lose comeout 440
win comeout 165
push comeout 55 (165 wins, 440 losses)
win on point 6 or 8 300
lose on point 6 or 8 250
win on point 5 or 9 264
lose on point 5 or 9 176
win on point 4 or 10 220
lose on point 4 or 10 110 (784 wins, 536 losses)
So, your expected winning percentage on the comeout is just 27.27%, while your expected winning percentage on points is 59.39%.
Certainly, the DP has the lowest HA on the table, excepting some buy bets under the most favorable rules, but it also has quite low variance, which can be good or bad, depending on your goal(s). Without laying odds and/or progressive betting, a player is extremely unlikely to double his/her buying, since the excess of wins over losses is the only profit.
The rest of the system, it appears, is based on a (deliberate?) misunderstanding of the concept of independent, random events.
Cheers,
Alan Shank
The only educated guess you can make is this: The probability of winning the next DP decision is .47929, the probability of losing it is .49292 and the probability of a push is .02777.
“The bet that we focus on will give you the greatest odds of winning after you make it past the come-out roll. Most of the time you make it past the come-out roll, thus the odds will be in your favor that your bet will win.”
This is extremely misleading, this “most of the time”. In fact, you make it past the comeout roll two-thirds of the time. Sound good? Well, consider these numbers:
lose comeout 440
win comeout 165
push comeout 55 (165 wins, 440 losses)
win on point 6 or 8 300
lose on point 6 or 8 250
win on point 5 or 9 264
lose on point 5 or 9 176
win on point 4 or 10 220
lose on point 4 or 10 110 (784 wins, 536 losses)
So, your expected winning percentage on the comeout is just 27.27%, while your expected winning percentage on points is 59.39%.
Certainly, the DP has the lowest HA on the table, excepting some buy bets under the most favorable rules, but it also has quite low variance, which can be good or bad, depending on your goal(s). Without laying odds and/or progressive betting, a player is extremely unlikely to double his/her buying, since the excess of wins over losses is the only profit.
The rest of the system, it appears, is based on a (deliberate?) misunderstanding of the concept of independent, random events.
Cheers,
Alan Shank
The only educated guess you can make is this: The probability of winning the next DP decision is .47929, the probability of losing it is .49292 and the probability of a push is .02777.
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